2025 has been a good, if not quite great, year for Sci-Fi movies. There have been some strong releases, from Frankenstein to Companion, and Bugonia to franchise fare like the two Predator movies, but also a few that didn’t quite live up to expectations (such as Mickey 17), and some that I still can’t quite believe exist (Ice Cube’s War of the Worlds remake??). The genre has arguably been stronger on TV, which gave us Andor, Severance Season 2, Alien: Earth, and the still ongoing Pluribus, but the big screen hasn’t quite had that year-defining masterpiece that much of the 2020s has offered.
Whether it was Everything Everywhere All at Once in 2022 or Dune: Part Two in 2024, we’ve seen some years where there was a clear Sci-Fi movie release that soared above all the others. That’s the kind of level we’ve not yet hit in 2025, but that could all change in December with the release of Avatar: Fire & Ash.
The first two movies in the saga both faced some justifiable criticism for their stories, and yet… it doesn’t really matter. As a cinematic event, a visual feast, and for truly feeling like you’re being transported to another world, few Sci-Fi experiences come close to Avatar (especially in IMAX), and there’s little reason to think the third installment will be any different. The film has a new Na’vi threat in the Ash People, whose leader, Varang, works with the series’ villain, Quaritch. The stakes should be higher, the themes of family even deeper, and with several years in post-production, with VFX work once again from Weta Digital, this should be another must-see-in-theaters release.
Will Avatar: Fire & Ash Repeat The Franchise’s Box Office Success?
While some of 2025’s Sci-Fi movies failed to set the box office alight – Bugonia only made $33 million, for example, while Mickey 17 pulled in $133m against a reported budget of $118m – there shouldn’t be any major concerns about this. That said, James Cameron has raised some about Avatar: Fire & Ash‘s box office, stating that if it doesn’t make enough money then, because it cost so much to make, with a production budget alone of around $250m, the other planned sequels might not happen (there’s supposed to be a fourth and fifth movie to come).
That sounds a little too much like overcaution and a refusal to tempt fate, because no one should ever bet against James Cameron. He’s not only one of the greatest blockbuster filmmakers of all time, but his movies make money. The last three he’s directed – Avatar: The Way of Water (2022), Avatar (2009), and Titanic (1997) – all made over $2bn at the box office. The question is whether Fire & Ash will be able to cross that threshold as well.
The other two Avatar movies had an advantage: the first was a unique event, billed as being unlike anything we’d seen before in terms of its visuals; the second was much delayed, and the 13-year gap meant a lot of hype had been built. The next sequel is arriving just three years later, which is more standard franchise fare. According to Deadline, the early tracking has it opening at around $110m domestically, which is below The Way of Water ($134m), though still well above the first Avatar ($77m), and is certainly an impressive figure.
What really matters with the Avatar franchise is its legs. The Way of Water‘s domestic total was 5x its opening box office (for context, a typical multiplier is around 2.5-3x opening weekend, depending on word of mouth). These movies tend to really dominate the holidays, both in the U.S. and internationally, and Fire & Ash should be in a similar range.
It may also perform better in China: The Way of Water pulled in a mammoth $246m there, but the country still had strict Covid policies. With things opening up more, and the encouraging performance of Zootopia 2 in the territory, there’s a chance for Fire & Ash to improve. Hitting The Way of Water‘s $2.3bn is no easy feat, and that itself wasn’t as big as the first movie, so a step down should still be expected. Crossing $2bn isn’t a normal expectation, so it’s a little unfair to expect it of this, but also don’t be surprised if it achieves it, becoming Hollywood’s biggest release of 2025 by a wide margin.
Avatar: Fire & Ash will be released in theaters on December 19th, 2025.
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2025 has been a good, if not quite great, year for Sci-Fi movies. There have been some strong releases, from Frankenstein to Companion, and Bugonia to franchise fare like the two Predator movies, but also a few that didn’t quite live up to expectations (such as Mickey 17), and some that I still can’t quite
The post 2025 Is Saving Its Only True Sci-Fi Masterpiece for the Very End (but How Big Will It Be?) appeared first on ComicBook.com. ComicBook.comRead More